New UK EU-Deal Proposals Released: Are We Heading For Customs Union-Lite?
The UK proposals for a deal with the EU have been released. Ever since Boris got into No.10 he has trumpeted a good tune which the majority of Brexiteers have enjoyed. However, legally for the same amount of time he has been using May’s Surrender Document. It has worried the majority of the Tory membership but so far, we’ve all just clapped along at his speeches and held our judgement for the real meat and potatoes. And finally, they’re here.
Boris has talked a good game recently about scrapping the current deal and going with a totally new deal. But is it really something the chef whipped up this morning or is it just a plate of reheated leftovers?
The UK is proposing, Northern Ireland be kept in alignment with the EU customs laws for food, agriculture and goods. Boris is insisting this means the UK as a whole leaves the Customs Union. Yet these regulations will not be of our choosing, thus we’re really just opting to stay in Customs Union-Lite. What this also means is Northern Ireland is separated from the rest of the UK and treated as a separate jurisdiction, where UK laws are not necessarily applied.
In the third of the five elements, the legal text clearly states Northern Ireland regulations on goods will stay the same as the EU i.e. “ensuring that goods regulations in Northern Ireland are the same as those in the rest of the EU.” For all intents and purposes, we are still in the Customs Union via the back door. Where are the DUP in all of this?
The fourth element is the bombshell of the text. “...This regulatory zone must depend on the consent of those affected by it. This is essential to the acceptability of arrangements under which part of the UK accepts the rules of a different political entity.”
This is not good enough. The UK is willfully putting it's head in between the jaws of a crocodile, hoping for the best. The sad part is, we’re doing this voluntarily. Boris hopes this will fly by giving the Northern Irish Assembly a final say.
It goes onto state “We are proposing that the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly should have the opportunity to endorse those arrangements before they enter into force, that is, during the transition period, and every four years afterwards. If consent is not secured, the arrangements will lapse.” The DUP merely get to ‘endorse’ the arrangements but this doesn’t mean they have the power of legal consent at the treaty table. Again, it seems to be putting Northern Ireland on a different trading law platform to the rest of the UK.
After four years, when the time comes to renew the arrangements Northern Ireland would be able to give their consent legally. If they didn’t give their consent, the arrangements would ‘lapse’. However, it doesn’t state what they would lapse back to. Would it mean Northern Ireland falls back into the Customs Union? What is the default position? You can bet the EU lawyers will be wedging chinks like this as wide as they can.
In the final fifth element the deal also says Northern Ireland will become a part of the UK customs territory and not the EU customs territory. But only at the end of these arrangements. It mentions the abject importance of the UK pursuing its own trade policy. This final element says all the right things and satisfies us Brexiteers.
However the proposals only set out the future for Northern Ireland. The legal future of Northern Ireland will be with regards to ECJ jurisdiction is still unclear. What the future will look like for the rest of the UK is still to be set out by the Government. There have been no official plans set forth for fishing, defence, security, intelligence sharing etc. Focus has been purely on the backstop. Sadly it already seems like Boris is accepting the EU will not accept these proposals and behind closed doors he’s apparently willing to move even further. As we know from the recent past, a budge can quickly turn into a fudge.
If I were leading the Brexit negotiations I would offer a ‘good faith’ arrangement. The best solution is that we have full control of our own trade policy right from the get-go. This obviously means we have the ability to set out own goods regulations throughout every corner of the United Kingdom. By doing so we don’t stifle innovation at the expense of pleasing the EU Commission. However, if and or when we do choose to enter the European Economic Area, we will only do so with products that meet their goods regulations. Therefore we give businesses the freedom to create products that they can sell around the world and at home first and foremost. But if they wish to trade with the EU, (which they will), they can create products specifically for that market. We would be outside the EU in its entirety and using ‘good faith’, we would only have our goods enter the Republic of Ireland if they met the Customs Union regulations. This would mean no hard border and trade continues on seamlessly.
Nigel Farage hasn’t accepted the Government proposals as a good way forward. Some ERG members seem to be on side with Suella Braverman, John Redwood and most crucially Steve Baker seeming to give the proposals good cheer at the moment. If the EU rejects this opening move by the UK side and ask for more concessions, it will give Boris the right amount of political ammunition to pursue a No Deal. If he does cave in, he will lose the gathering fervour around him and look like another paper tiger.
Written by George Royce