The un-electability of Corbyn’s Labour: A Look at Voter Types
As the embers of what remains of the Labour party begin to burn out, many will be wondering how the Conservative party managed to win such a landslide in December and break down the “red wall” of the North. Jeremy Corbyn announced during his acceptance speech in Islington North that he would not lead the Labour party through another general election, although at time of writing he is yet to officially resign. So how did Jeremy and his momentum friends at the top lead the Labour party through two elections, and lose them both? To answer this question, we must ask: who would vote for him? Labour voters can be split up into three general tranches: heartlanders, middle class moderates and the far left. With this in mind, lets take a look why Labour under Corbyn was so unelectable.
Heartlanders are the working-class traditional voting base of the Labour party. In fact, this is the group who’s interests the Labour party was originally set up to protect. A typical heartlander lives in the northern industrial heartlands and comes from a blue-collar background. For many years, they accounted for the “red wall” in the north, as many northern families voted labour for generations. Why wouldn’t they? Labour has always been pro trade unionism and advocated for more benefits for workers. As well as being keen for more favourable working conditions, heartlanders also tend to be very patriotic and overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU. They are therefore not the type to take too kindly to being branded as “racists” among other buzzwords used by Diane Abbott et al for voting leave and having concerns about the impact of mass immigration. It was only a matter of time before they got sick and tired of being looked down upon by the metropolitan elite that make up momentum, and as soon as the result for Blyth Valley was announced on the night of the election, it was clear that they finally had enough. More and more results came in from the northern seats and by midnight, it was clear that the “red wall” of the north had crumbled. As a side note: many heartlanders also tend to be war veterans, who are unlikely to take too kindly to Corbyn’s policy on Northern Ireland and the legal witch hunts that are currently taking place against British soldiers.
Middle class moderates make up a significant, in fact close to the majority, of labour voters living in the suburbs and the southern countryside. They are typically middle-class baby boomers / gen x who overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and although their views on wealth redistribution tend to vary, you won’t find many hardcore Marxists within this tranche. Most of the Labour back benchers and peers can be found here. The failed “New Labour” project brought about by Tony Blair sat well with this group, as it allowed them to adopt a more socialist outlook to feel virtuous while simultaneously ensuring that their financial interests are safeguarded. As a result, they are often referred to as “Blairites”. While a few would have decided that a self-confessed Marxist as shadow chancellor was too much for their liking, Corbyn’s leadership in and of itself shouldn’t have caused a major loss in votes from that tranche. But there is one issue that changes everything: Israel. Middle class moderates, especially the hardcore Blair supporters, are staunchly pro-Israel. Considering who Jeremy calls his “friends”, it is easy to see why this tranche had less of a reason to vote for Labour. While it is hard to tell how much of an impact this group had on Labour’s decline in vote share, they could be part of the reason why the Lib-Dems gained 4.2% of votes compared to 2017. Also, even if by the off-chance Labour did manage to form a government, would Corbyn even have enough support from the Blairite back benchers to form a functioning government? Well they certainly won’t take kindly to his stance on the middle east for starters.
So Corbyn et al have managed to alienate two major voting blocs. Who is he left with then? The far left. Arch Marxists who live in the inner cities. They comprise of a wide range of age groups, but student labourites tend to fall into this category. This is the only group that momentum truly represent on the NEC, and they are probably the fastest growing category of labour voter. While they have the numbers, they have a geographical problem. This group tends to reside almost exclusively in the inner-city seats, most of which are Labour safe seats anyway. The other two tranches are more geographically distributed. When its seats that truly count, appealing to the far left alone is not a good strategy to say the least. Two other parties are also in competition for their votes; the Greens and the Lib Dems. Far leftists tend to flip between Labour and one of the other two depending on what issue matters to them the most (extinction rebellion types go for the former, and hardcore remainers for the latter). As a result, Corbyn’s assured voting bloc consists of a subsection of the far left that are cultishly obsessed with him.
Momentum’s ideologically motivated strategy of appealing to a small safe-seat clustered bloc, at the expense of two large and spread out ones, lead to Labour’s severe punishment at the polls. December was much more of a Labour loss than a conservative win. Labour’s vote share change since 2017 was -7.8%, while the Tories only. Since the election, many have said that this would be the end of the Labour party as we know it. While it is difficult to predict how demographics and voting patterns will look within the next decade or two, this statement could come true if Momentum maintains its grip on the party. For the heartlanders, the damage is done. It is clear to them that modern Labour doesn’t even slightly resemble the traditional Labour that their parents and grandparents voted for. All that Labour are left with are the far left, and possibly the middle-class moderates depending on who gets chosen as leader. Both of which have diverging interests and opposing views on key issues. Even if Momentum are routed from the party’s power structure, Labour could still be too divided to continue as a political entity.
Written by Tom Dowd